BJP coalition in Manipur claims to form new government with support of 44 MLAs. Discussions regarding a new Chief Minister to replace N. Biren Singh have begun.
Manipur: Manipur's political landscape is once again in the spotlight. Following a prolonged period of ethnic violence, the state's political equations are rapidly shifting. Recently, a delegation of 10 MLAs from the BJP-led NDA coalition met with Governor Anjai Kumar Bhalla, claiming the support of 44 MLAs and expressing their readiness to form a new government. This development has drawn significant attention to Manipur's political dynamics. What is the story behind this sudden move to form a government? Will N. Biren Singh return as Chief Minister, or will a new face emerge? Let's examine this sequence of events in detail.
Two Years of Instability and Ethnic Violence in Manipur
Manipur has been grappling with ethnic violence for the past two years. The ongoing tension between the Meitei and Kuki communities has destabilized the state's social and political fabric. In February 2024, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh resigned, leading to the imposition of President's Rule in Manipur. Now, as the situation gradually appears to be normalizing, the BJP-led NDA government has taken steps towards forming a new government.
BJP Claims Support of 44 MLAs
A delegation of 10 NDA MLAs, led by BJP MLA Thokchom Radheshyam Singh, met with the Governor. They claimed to have the support of 44 MLAs and are fully prepared to form a new government. According to the BJP, the Assembly Speaker also met individually and collectively with 44 MLAs, and none opposed the formation of the government.
This clearly indicates that the BJP possesses a majority. With one seat currently vacant in the 60-member Manipur Assembly, the support of 44 MLAs out of 59 represents a b position.
Why the Sudden Initiative to Form a Government?
The question arises: why this sudden initiative to form a government? This move, amidst the ongoing President's Rule in Manipur, carries several political implications. Political analysts believe this is an attempt to gauge the "sentiment" in Manipur; the BJP aims to assess public and other stakeholder opinions.
According to senior Northeast journalist Joseph Lepcha, the situation in Manipur has gradually improved. The BJP might be sensing this improved climate and attempting to determine the viability of forming a government. The BJP might be trying to consolidate its hold, especially with the Assembly elections scheduled for 2027.
Will Biren Singh Return, or Will a New Face Emerge?
A major question is whether N. Biren Singh will be reappointed Chief Minister if a new government is formed, or if a new face will emerge.
Analyzing the political equations, it's clear that Biren Singh's reappointment is not certain. Thokchom Radheshyam Singh, himself from the Meitei community, led the delegation. This could indicate that the BJP might opt for a different leader this time.
The Meitei community dominates Manipur's politics. Among the BJP's 44 MLAs, there were 32 Meitei MLAs, 3 Manipuri Muslims, 9 Naga MLAs, and some Kuki MLAs. However, following the violence, seven Kuki MLAs left the BJP coalition. Alienating the Meitei vote bank would be risky for the BJP. Therefore, it's possible they might choose a leader from the Meitei community who also enjoys good rapport with other communities.
Reasons for Opposition to Biren Singh
Demands for Biren Singh's resignation have been long-standing. Kuki organizations accused the government of a biased approach, exacerbating the situation in the state. However, Biren Singh remained Chief Minister due to the Meitei vote bank. But the BJP's strategy now appears to have changed. The party might be aiming to send a message by bringing in a new face, suggesting its efforts to be inclusive.
Manipur Assembly's Strength: Meitei Dominance
Looking at the current composition of the Manipur Assembly, 37 out of 59 MLAs belong to the Meitei community. Of the BJP coalition's 44 MLAs, 32 are Meitei, 3 are Manipuri Muslims, and 9 are Naga. All 5 Congress MLAs are also from the Meitei community. Thus, the Meitei majority forms the backbone of any government.
The number of Kuki MLAs is very low, and they have already left the BJP coalition. Therefore, the BJP's priority is to retain the support of the Meitei community. Hence, it's possible the party might appoint another Meitei leader as Chief Minister, replacing Biren Singh and potentially mitigating opposition.
BJP's Next Strategy in Manipur
For the BJP, forming a government in Manipur is not just about returning to power; it's a significant political gamble. Before the 2027 Assembly elections, it's crucial for the party to demonstrate stability and convey the message that Manipur is secure and stable under BJP leadership.
The BJP might present this move to form a government as a positive message, signifying the normalization of the situation and the state's need for stable leadership. However, the role of the party's central leadership will be crucial, as the decision to choose the Chief Minister will ultimately be made in Delhi.
