A Close Contest Expected Between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections. Both leaders are continuously touring the state. Modi is focusing on development, while Rahul is attacking the government's failures.
Bihar Election 2025: The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have generated significant buzz in Bihar's political landscape. A key question dominating the political atmosphere is whether the real contest in the Bihar elections will be between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi have intensified their activities in Bihar. In the first five months of this year, Modi has undertaken four visits to Bihar, while Rahul Gandhi has visited the state four times and is scheduled for a fifth visit soon.
While the NDA secured a majority in the 2020 Assembly elections, it was a slender one. Both camps are now deploying their full strength for the 2025 elections. Let's examine the trajectory of Bihar's politics and how the Modi-Rahul face-off is shaping up.
Modi's Activity in Bihar
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's focus is on strengthening the narrative of a "double-engine" government. In a recent rally in Bikramganj, he divided Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's 20-year rule into two parts, arguing that Bihar's progress was slow before 2014, but accelerated after his government came to power at the Centre.
In every speech, Modi highlights central government schemes for Bihar, such as infrastructure projects, new medical colleges, and expansion of road and rail networks. His clear message is that only a "double-engine" government can lead Bihar on the path to progress. Although he hasn't directly appealed for votes yet, the electoral message is evident in his rallies.
Rahul Gandhi's Bihar Tour
Rahul Gandhi's Bihar visits have a different objective. He is working on a strategy to attract the NDA's traditional vote bank. His target audience includes Scheduled Castes, Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and minorities. Rahul's upcoming visit on June 6th is to Rajgir in Nalanda, where he will address an EBC convention.
A notable difference is that not all Mahagatbandhan (grand alliance) leaders share the stage at Rahul's rallies, unlike Modi's rallies where all NDA alliance partners are present. This highlights the lack of unity within the opposition. Even in the 2020 and 2024 elections, Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav found it difficult to share a platform.
The 2020 Election and the NDA's Narrow Victory
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA won 125 out of 243 seats, just enough to cross the majority mark. The Mahagatbandhan secured 110 seats. Modi held 12 rallies in Bihar during that election, which had a significant impact.
Rahul Gandhi's rallies were fewer – he visited Bihar three times and held eight meetings. This time, Rahul Gandhi is trying to compensate for this shortfall by increasing his activity.
Will the Lok Sabha Election Results be Repeated in the Assembly Elections?
The NDA's performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections was weaker than in 2019. In 2019, the NDA won 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar, but this number dropped to 31 in 2024. The opposition won 10 seats.
However, based on Assembly seats, if the trend of NDA's gains in Lok Sabha seats is replicated in the Assembly elections, they would likely return to power without much difficulty.
The NDA's confidence has also been boosted by the results of four recent Assembly by-elections. The NDA candidates' victories in Belaganj, Tarari, Ramgarh, and Imamganj have given them encouragement.
Challenges for Rahul and the Mahagatbandhan's Weak Link
Rahul Gandhi's biggest challenge is keeping the Mahagatbandhan united. A core committee has been formed, and press conferences are shared, but the trend of sharing stages hasn't yet emerged. Whether Rahul and Tejashwi Yadav will share a stage by the Assembly elections remains a crucial question.
Furthermore, Congress's own vote bank is weak, so Rahul will need to work harder on the ground to strengthen his hold in Bihar.
